The latest world economic outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the 12th local time shows that affected by the epidemic, the global economy is expected to continue to recover in 2021, but the recovery momentum slows down. The IMF expects the economy to grow by 5.9% for the whole year, down 0.1 percentage point from the forecast in July.
The report said that the global economy is continuing to recover, but COVID-19's impact on the economies of all countries will be more durable. At present, delta strain is spreading rapidly, and new mutant strains may also appear, which will bring more uncertainty to the duration of the epidemic. Slowing employment growth, rising inflation, food security and climate change have brought many challenges to the response policies of economies.
The report points out that the reduction of the global economic growth forecast for 2021 is mainly caused by the predicted slowdown of developed economies and low-income developing countries. Among them, developed economies predict that the slowdown in growth is due to supply interruption to a certain extent; Low income developing countries predict that the slowdown is mainly caused by the deterioration of the epidemic. In addition, the short-term economic prospects of some commodity exporting emerging markets and developing economies are expected to improve.
The IMF predicts that the economies of developed economies will grow by 5.2% this year, down 0.4 percentage points from the forecast in July; The economies of emerging markets and developing economies will grow by 6.4%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the forecast in July. Among them, the US economy will grow by 6%, 1 percentage point lower than the forecast value in July; The euro zone economy will grow by 5%; Japan's economy will grow by 2.4%. Meanwhile, the IMF expects China's economy to grow by 8% this year.
For 2022, the IMF expects the global economy to grow by 4.9%, which is the same as the forecast in July. Among them, the economies of developed economies will grow by 4.5%, and the economies of emerging markets and developing economies will grow by 5.1%. The economies of the United States, the euro zone and Japan grew by 5.2%, 4.3% and 3.2% respectively. China's economy is expected to grow by 5.6%.
Gita gopinat, chief economist of IMF, said that due to factors such as differences in vaccine access capacity and policy support, the economic prospects of various economies are differentiated, which is the main problem facing the global economic recovery. The inflationary pressure caused by the imbalance between supply and demand will also aggravate the risk of economic recovery and make it more difficult for policy response.
News source: China News Network release time: October 13, 2021
Market trends please pay attention to official account.
